Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 20.240582 22.069116 24.098489 26.540489 29.430722 32.783836 37.031873
2024-11-03 17.418859 19.794340 22.632291 26.353245 31.235871 37.638515 47.086981
2024-11-10 15.655530 18.329637 21.703995 26.437730 33.215762 43.167932 60.374192
2024-11-17 14.422202 17.279407 21.043931 26.628873 35.262970 49.381689 78.319229
2024-11-24 13.458616 16.422311 20.465658 26.752517 37.153388 56.000491 102.459861
2024-12-01 12.568464 15.547063 19.719581 26.449927 38.219103 61.553163 130.748188
2024-12-08 11.914895 14.924077 19.243948 26.459739 39.789480 68.854442 176.960988
2024-12-15 11.298962 14.293138 18.676358 26.210120 40.789813 75.434138 239.688718
2024-12-22 10.756222 13.721225 18.135059 25.913127 41.610171 82.107770 336.377626
2024-12-29 10.294652 13.232783 17.674126 25.684567 42.513349 89.717001 514.744545
2025-01-05 9.897688 12.812254 17.281173 25.520274 43.519057 98.557692 924.883882
2025-01-12 9.456076 12.296457 16.692229 24.914816 43.358105 103.334026 1639.487176
2025-01-19 9.343164 12.281049 16.929308 25.935289 47.517307 130.466630 NaN
2025-01-26 9.022239 11.922654 16.562612 25.715067 48.428389 144.627591 NaN
2025-02-02 8.774662 11.665645 16.348997 25.779981 50.174440 167.201536 NaN
2025-02-09 8.563954 11.455010 16.198605 25.956605 52.332698 198.741060 NaN
2025-02-16 8.359902 11.243651 16.030382 26.072376 54.375329 237.729638 NaN
2025-02-23 8.112904 10.950389 15.696017 25.781550 55.022479 267.591409 NaN
2025-03-02 7.924123 10.743604 15.504301 25.790529 56.735790 322.526105 NaN
2025-03-09 7.714869 10.493765 15.218470 25.551262 57.509117 373.170754 NaN
2025-03-16 7.512850 10.247797 14.925943 25.266634 58.053724 430.170628 NaN
2025-03-23 7.331119 10.028676 14.671470 25.047551 58.816883 509.880535 NaN
2025-03-30 7.167371 9.833521 14.451443 24.890044 59.810627 627.073938 NaN